Leica S-System: Will it be successful?

Recently, Leica has announced the prices for the new S-System. The S-System is a new camera system from Leica with a new sensor which is bigger than current full frame sensors in cameras like the Nikon D3x or Canon EOS 5D Mark II. The sensor has a size of 30×45 mm and 37.5 megapixels. The new camera, called S2, will have Autofocus – something Leica never introduced into it’s legendary R-System.
The new System will require completely new lenses as the lenses for the R system won’t fit on the bigger lens mount of the S2.
For the start of the systen, the following four lenses will be available from Leica (more lenses will probably follow soon):

2.5/70
3.5/180
2.5/120
2.5/35

Now the new S-System will be available soon. The question is: Will this be a success? Leica had it’s problems in recent years, probably because they misjudged the almost complete takeover of digital photography.

The move to a larger sensor and a completely new system has surprised many but is also considered the right direction for professional photography by many photographers.
There is no doubt that the new lenses will be extremely good and will deliver outstanding sharpness. I am sure at least some photographers have already ordered the system and can’t wait to take the first pictures with the S2 and a new Leica lens.

But to be a success, Leica must sell more cameras and lenses than just a few. The development of the whole system took quite some time and therefore, was probably pretty expensive.

I really hope that Leica will be successful with the new system. I won’t get one for myself, but I have always liked Leica products – I own a great pair of Leica binoculars.

But there are several reasons, why this might not be successful. Please keep in mind that this is must my personal opinion. Let’s look at the different reasons:

Price:
Probably the biggest obstacle for most photographers. At a price of more than 20.000 US dollars for the camera body alone, only professionals and maybe some amateurs who always wanted to have a Leica will think about getting this one. If you get all the four new lenses, you will have to pay more than 40.000 dollars!!!
In the current economic situation, most professional photographers will think at least twice before spending that much amount of money on a new camera system. For a lot less money, you can get a complete full frame camera system from Nikon or Canon which produces amazing quality. Even some medium format cameras are cheaper than the new Leica S-System.

Competition with the current full frame cameras from Nikon and Canon
For about 1/3 of the price you can get a Nikon D3X which already delivers 24.6 MP and Nikon has recently produced some awesome lenses full frame cameras. The difference between the 24.6 MP of the D3X and the 37.5 of the S2 is not as big as it might look it is.

Lenses:
Nobody doubts that the new Leica lenses will be outstanding. Leica has always produced excellent lenses which where often the best on the market.
At the moment, only 4 lenses will be offered. More will follow, probably soon. But right now, 4 lenses is not much. With the current lenses, the S-System is mostly suitable for studio photography and landscape work which are probably the primary targets for the S-System. There are no really long telephoto lenses or macro lenses yet. And today, people want zoom lenses. Hopefully Leica will soon offer more lenses, otherwise the whole system will not be very interesting for most photographers.

The sensor:
It will be interesting to see how the sensor in the S2 performs. The current sensors in high resolution full frame cameras like the Nikon D3X or the Canon EOS 5D Mark II are of very high quality.
The sensor in the S2 must match the quality of sensors in those cameras and not just at ISO 100 but also at higher ISO values. The D3X and EOS 5D Mark II are good at high ISO settings like ISO 800 or even above. If the S2 sensor is significantly worse than the Nikon or Canon cameras, many photographers will probably prefer a Nikon or Canon camera.

Future models by Canon or Nikon
Canon and Nikon make the most money with entry-level and mid range cameras like the Nikon D90 or D300(s).
But for the professional market, they may decide to develop new cameras with larger sensors as big as the sensor in the S2 or even bigger. In a few years, a 45 MP sensor twice the size than the current sensor in a D3X may be available for only a few thousand dollars and even amateur photographers might think about getting such a camera. The reason why we have not yet seen such cameras from Nikon or Canon is the fact, that the current lenses won’t fit on such a camera. Nikon and Canon would need to build a whole new line-up of lenses for the new cameras. And this would mean a significant investment many photographers won’t be willing to make.
But I am sure Canon and Nikon are at least thinking about such a move. And they have the knowledge and probably the financial resources to do it. And then they may be much faster than Leica building such a system. Canon and Nikon probably could build a complete lens line-up much faster than Leica. And they could reuse much of current camera technology. It shouldn’t be to difficult to take the body of a Nikon D3 or a Canon EOS 1D Mark III and put a larger sensor in it. And stuff like flashes probably could be used with the current cameras and the one with the larger sensor as well.
Just imagine Nikon would offer a similar camera like the S2 but with all the power of the D3(X), including the great AF system and all the other great features. They could probably make it available a lot cheaper than Leica.
And Nikon and Canon are also capable of building high quality lenses. I think that if Canon or Nikon (or both) decide to build a system similar to the S-System from Leica and if they aggressively advertise for it, Leica won’t have much chance against them.

As I already wrote, this is just my personal opinion. I recently had the chance to hold a prototype S2 in my hand. I feels great and I really wanted to take it, together with the new lenses, and try it out for a few days but that was, of course, not possibly.

I wish Leica good luck with the new system but only time will tell if it will be successful or not.